In the year 2024, the East African Community (EAC) member states, comprising Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, are poised to encounter a complex economic landscape marked by various factors. This comprehensive forecast highlights a collective focus on enhancing productivity, promoting value addition, and providing crucial support for smallholder farmers.
The region's economic strategies extend to strengthening overall economies through diverse measures, including improving social services and bolstering regional infrastructure connectivity. A key thematic emphasis across the board is on agriculture, with member states working towards increased productivity, value addition, and support for small-scale farmers, aiming to significantly contribute to individual countries' gross domestic product (GDP) and employment opportunities.
Tanzania's Inclusive Economic Vision for 2024/25
In the upcoming financial year, Tanzania is set to prioritize the creation of an inclusive economy, backed by a projected government budget of Sh47.42 trillion. Sectors such as agriculture, livestock, fishing, forestry, and mining will witness heightened emphasis on productivity and value addition.
Addressing the financing disparity in agriculture is a key goal, and efforts will be directed towards supporting smallholder farmers, promoting primary processing factories, enhancing infrastructure, and boosting digitalization. Finance Minister Mwigulu Nchemba outlined a shift towards electronic payments, formalization of micro and small businesses, private sector participation, and risk mitigation.
Other notable initiatives include increasing power generation through the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP), implementing education reforms, local government elections, universal health insurance (UHI), and commencing operations of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).
Economic analyst Dr. Jane Nkosi, speaking to The Citizen, emphasized the need for intensified regional coordination to improve the ease of doing business within the EAC, applauding the focus on inclusive growth and agricultural productivity.
Kenya's Anticipation of 5.5 Percent Economic Growth
Kenya is anticipating a 5.5 percent economic growth in 2024, driven by the services sector, agricultural rebound, and government initiatives. Despite challenges faced in 2023, the forecast suggests resilience surpassing global and sub-Saharan African averages.
Experts stress the importance of practical policies, rationality, and long-term planning as Kenya navigates economic challenges, including a free-falling shilling and potential impacts of President William Ruto’s bottom-up economic model.
Uganda's Projected Growth Driven by Fixed Investment
Uganda's economy is projected to pick up in 2024, targeting a growth rate of 5.8 percent, primarily propelled by strong fixed investment, notably in the oil sector. The Lake Albert Oil Project and the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) attract significant investment, with risks including eligibility suspension under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and potential currency weakening.
Rwanda Aims for 6.6 Percent Growth
Rwanda, having experienced robust economic growth in 2022, forecasts a 6.6 percent growth in 2024. Despite temporary slowdowns, private consumption and investment are expected to be primary growth drivers, fueled by successful business reforms, infrastructure investments, and economic diversification.
Burundi's Focus on Public Investment and Agricultural Growth
Burundi's real GDP is expected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2024, driven by public investment in transportation and energy. Measures to boost agricultural production and stabilize the exchange rate aim to narrow the current account deficit, but socio-political instability and disruptions in access to fertilizer pose risks.
Economic experts emphasize the need for pragmatism, adaptability, and regional cooperation to navigate the mixed challenges and opportunities in 2024, fostering sustained and inclusive growth across East Africa. Cross-border businesses are expected to thrive with collaborative regional initiatives.